System 8-22 Review

I suspect that this final combined system review shows how folly it is to set a betting bank based on a one-off historical drawdown. Based on the edge this system has, you would have to say that the drawdown experienced during the first season probably has a very low probability of happening again, never mind being more than twice as bad next time! Therefore, based on the max historical drawdown, you are going to end up with too high a bank and probably too low a ROC. There are ways around it though, you just need to find ways to increase the pts profit that doesn’t increase the drawdowns.  Higher staked homes and AH aways would be the way to do it.

System 8-22

Last Season

System 8 – 160 bets, 9.0% ROI

System 22 – 245 bets, 8.2% ROI

System 8-22 – 94 bets, 26.2% ROI

This Season

System 8 – 94 bets, 10.2% ROI

System 22 – 133 bets, 15.6% ROI

System 8-22 – 40 bets, 30.5% ROI

I hate saying this given the results above but in a way, system 8-22 is a useless system now. Inadvertently, by tightening up each algorithm, I’ve effectively squeezed too many bets out by filtering and by the time you get down to system 8-22, there aren’t enough bets left!

It says it all that it still managed to make a 30.5% ROI this season over only 40 bets but quite simply, you can’t follow a system seriously that has 40 bets a season.  Of course, no matter what portfolio everyone is following, they should probably just add 8-22 to the portfolio as with 40 bets a season, win, lose or draw, the system isn’t going to do much damage in a season and based on results to date, it should make a profit.

497 bets across 6 seasons with an ROI of 34.7% is about as good as it gets but unfortunately, as a standalone system, it’s meaningless now. I’m sure people reading this would be thinking that playing £500 a point and making an ROI of 30% a season from staking £20k a season isn’t a bad idea but the risk that comes with that is huge. You could stake £20k in different ways across the season that reduces the risk and helps to ensure that if things go badly, you don’t end up broke. Of course, if any systems can dodge variance, this is probably it as it is so unique in the way it is built but I just have to think sooner or later, a few bets will lose and that profit will be reduced to zero over a season simply due to variance.

It’s impossible to analyse this system too much as 40 bets isn’t a near big enough sample to draw any conclusions from. The fact the system has managed to have 13 winning months from 17 since it went live is unbelievable given the small bet numbers each month but then again, it is so good at picking out the best bets.

The Homes were unreal on this system this season.  13 winners from 17 bets and an ROI of 48.8%. 15 from 22 last season when it achieved an ROI of 28.2%. 

Aways weren’t bad either with a 17% ROI this season but down on the 25.6% ROI last season.

I think this system is another one of those that is scarred from the bad performance and drawdown in the second half of the first season.

I suggested a betting bank of 40pts based on the drawdown of 16pts. The max drawdown is 17pts now. Based on the fact you only get 50 bets a season now max, 40pts can’t be the right bank for a season.

The profit this season is 12.2pts which means a ROC of 30.5%.  Very low again but can easily be improved by playing higher stakes on Homes.  The highest drawdown for AH0.25 and AH0.5 is less than 5pts, so therefore, if you want to reduce the betting bank and increase the ROC, this would allow you to do this too.

Anyway, going forward then, 30pts bank, 50 bets and a target ROI of 20%. Gives a target ROC of 33%.

System 8-21 Review

I think the theme from the last couple of reviews is the fact the ROC appears to be lower than you would expect given the performance of the system to date. However, in many cases, you either need to be playing higher stakes on Homes or using AH on Aways to get around this lower ROC issue. Of course, ROC isn't everything and if you play a few systems in total and leverage your bank a little, you can increase your ROC overall even though the systems may have lower ROC's independently.

System 8-21

Last Season

System 8 – 160 bets, 9.0% ROI

System 21 – 489 bets, 4.7% ROI

System 8-21 – 128 bets, 15.9% ROI

This Season

System 8 – 94 bets, 10.2% ROI

System 21 – 562 bets, 10.5% ROI

System 8-21 – 80 bets, 17.5% ROI

I like the look of the results above. In a way, system 8 is a great system already but cross referring it with system 21 turns it into something pretty special in my eyes. A 15.9% ROI last season and a 17.5% ROI this season.

In a way, this season’s performance is more impressive going by the fact the 14 bets that appeared on system 8 but didn’t appear on system 21 made a loss of 4.4pts.  May not seem like much but having the power to take a system like system 8 and improve it by applying a simple filter again is pretty impressive stuff I think.

Over 2 seasons, system 8-21 has an ROI 16.5%. Very impressive I think.

The Premiership bets were 6 from 6 on this system this season which is crazy. A profit of 11.3pts from these games.

Losses were achieved in League One, Two and the Championship but nothing major in any of them. Aways were to blame for all 3 losses. Looking back, League Two lost last season too. Fed up saying how bad League Two has been on these systems!

6 winning months from 9 this season and 13 from 18 winning months since the system went live.  

Aways struggled on this system this season. A profit of 1.4% and a loss on all types of AH betting. However, Homes had an ROI of 37.2% and thankfully, Homes had 45% of the bets this season, so Homes effectively saved this system this season.

Interestingly, the P&L graphs aren’t as impressive as some on this system.  The system did great for the first 60 bets, terrible for the next 60 bets, great for the next 60 bets and then no profit for the next 30 bets!

The same is true for the AH graphs although the drawdowns are small, so the bank needed would be low. Even so, it hasn’t produced great profits for AH betting and it was a losing season this season for all types of AH betting.

Seems like a fairly short review for this system but I feel like I don’t want to keep going over old ground and pointing out things that I’ve already pointed out on system 8 or 21.

Last Summer, I suggested a bank of 40pts which was based on a drawdown of 16pts. The max drawdown is now 18pts, so I’d say 40pts look OK and may be a little high given the lower number of bets this season.

A profit this season of 14pts gives a ROC of 35%. Again, fairly low ROC but it could be improved a little by playing higher stakes on Homes I think. The Homes on the high combined systems are so strong and it’s the Aways that bring the volatility to the systems.

Going forward then, I’d say a bank of 40pts is right. Maybe 100 bets a season (was lower this season) and a target ROI of 15%. A target ROC of 37.5%. Not as high as some but could be improved by playing slightly higher stakes on Homes. 

System 7-22 Review

In many ways, I suspect this system review is the most important of them all since it’s the system most subscribers follow. Many have 7/22 as part of their portfolio of systems and many who only follow a single system have chosen to follow system 7/22 in isolation.  I do hope though the previous reviews have shown that TFA is about so much more than just lumping on the very best bets. I’ll obviously summarise the reviews at the end and I’m planning on producing a simple table which tabulates all of the key information for subscribers but hopefully people are starting to see other ways of playing the bets and importantly, they understand that there are many systems which can be used to generate a profit for those following.

Anyway, here’s system 7-22.

System 7-22

I really need to start with comparing the single systems with the combined system.

Last Season

System 7 – 293 bets, 4.9% ROI

System 22 – 245 bets, 8.2% ROI

System 7-22 – 131 bets, 24.9% ROI

This Season

System 7 – 200 bets, 11.4% ROI

System 22 – 133 bets, 15.6% ROI

System 7-22 – 70 bets, 27.7% ROI

So much going on with the underlying systems 7 and 22 here, it’s difficult to fully appreciate what’s happening with system 7-22. A quick recap. System 7 and 22 were both tightened up significantly after a poor season last season.  I say poor but 4.9% and 8.2% isn’t a disaster but anyway, I tweaked things last Summer to try to improve the performance on each system this season.  As I’ve commented on before, any tweaks I make to the single systems ignore any impact on the combined systems. I don’t even look at the combined systems when considering tweaks. In my opinion, if you improve the single system or the base ratings, you improve the combined systems in the long-run. Simple as that really.

This season therefore, we’ve witnessed the expected improvement in 7 and 22 as the systems eliminated some of the poorer bets that appeared during the first season. The impact on system 7-22 is an ROI in line with last season (slightly better though) but a reduction in the number of bets.

Last season, I commented that I thought 131 bets was about as low as you wanted to go for any system over a season and now, we’re down at 70 bets. I personally think 70 bets in a season is NOT enough. It’s only my opinion though and I’ve shared it with others recently and they’ve said they don’t mind only having 70 bets a season, in the belief that they are following the best bets only that my systems generate.

I guess I understand this point of view and historically, over 6 seasons now, system 7-22 has achieved ROI’s by season of 44.7%, 34.8%, 30.8%, 26.1%, 24.9% and 27.7%.

It’s easy to bang on about variance possibly hitting this system at some point and the system possibly going a full season without any profit (which is my worry deep down) but so far, it hasn’t happened in 6 seasons. I don’t place a great weight of importance on the backtested results for any system that hasn’t recreated the same level of profits in a live environment but 7-22 is one of the systems has created the same level of profits since going live.  Hence, I have no concerns with looking at the results of 6 seasons instead of the last 2 seasons.

A 33% ROI from 737 bets spread across 6 seasons is probably as good as I’ve seen for any betting system I know of and therefore, I sort of understand why people have become so attached to system 7-22.

Should we just mortgage the house and invest everything we own in system 7-22? Well, in my opinion, no. A quick look at the P&L graph and you can see that there have been a couple of spells where nothing was made across 50 bets or so a few times and therefore, with only 70 bets a season now possibly, we’d be struggling to eat if the system hits a flat spot.

The other thing I should mention is the graph of the AH returns. It’s quite funny but the biggest drawdown on this system is using AH0.25 is only 7pts. Assuming we can use a bank of 15pts, this system makes an average of 19pts a season using AH0.25! Last season was the poorest season by far (less draws and more losses when the teams weren’t winning) and the profit was 7.5pts. Hence, a ROC of 50% during a poor season!

Being honest, the results are so good on this system, you can do anything you want and you will make a good profit I suspect!

Looking at the performance by league, it’s the first system I’ve reviewed so far that hasn’t made a loss on League Two Away bets last season. Another stunning statistic and when you think how few winners system 7 and 22 found in this league, combining the systems managed to turn a bad loss on each system into a profit!

5 Premiership bets this season, 4 winners and an ROI of 200%! 10.4pts profit from 5 games isn’t bad I guess.

Only 5 winning months from 8 this season but added to the 7 from 9 last season, its 12 from 17 which isn’t a disaster. The system struggles from the low number of bets in many months.

The ROIs on both Homes and Aways is stunning on this system and I laugh when I see them. A 36.9% ROI last season on Homes was followed up with an ROI of 28.9% this season. The 6 season average is 39.3%, so it was a poorer season this season than usually!

Aways had 22.2% last season and 27.1% this season. Amazing really.

I think the ability of this system to pick out the VERY best bets can be seen by two simple examples. 4 Home bets in League One, 4 winners. 4 Premiership Away bets, 4 winners. Of course, this is small samples and it won’t happen every season like this but it shows what this system is all about. Any bet that appears on system 7-22 is a good bet.

Last season then, I suggested a betting bank of 40pts which was very prudent and based on a drawdown of 16pts. The max drawdown remains 16pts and I’d think a bank of 30pts would be enough going forward on this system, given the edge shown and the lower number of bets.

The profit this season was 19.4pts, so a ROC of 48.5% based on last season’s bank.  I know people played banks of 20pts-30pts this season and the max drawdown was less than 5pts I think, so they didn’t exactly put their bank under pressure at any point.

The other thing I’ve touched on before on this system is that you can play 2pts on Homes without increasing the drawdown or risk. The edge on the Homes is large even though the odds are short and therefore, by doubling the stakes on Homes, you don’t actually need a higher bank and it increases your ROI. Many adopted this idea this season and it worked well. 

The Homes have a strike rate of 70.8% last season, 65.2% this season and 69.6% over 6 seasons. Hence, combined with the fact Aways have a strike rate of 44% and Aways make up 75% of the bets on this system, you can see quickly that Aways give the system the variance.

One thing I’ve touched on before is maybe playing AH on Aways, a slightly higher stake on Homes and I suspect you can get a much better ROC as it will reduce your bank considerably. I’ll be looking at this during the Summer as I’ve mentioned previously.

Going forward then, a betting bank of 30pts, 75 bets and a target ROI of 15%. This gives a conservative ROC target of 37.5%. Doesn’t look great at first glance but very easy to increase this without increasing the underlying risk following this system.

System 7-21 Review

There is a common theme appearing at the moment to do with AH betting. I suspect that to maximise the return on capital (ROC) on some of these systems, we really need to try to reduce the variance a little by using AH. Reducing this variance is the key if we really want to squeeze as much profit from these systems as we can. 

System 7-21

Last Season

System 7 – 293 bets, 4.9% ROI

System 21 – 489 bets, 4.7% ROI

System 7-21 – 188 bets, 19.4% ROI

This Season

System 7 – 200 bets, 11.4% ROI

System 21 – 562 bets, 10.5% ROI

System 7-21 – 171 bets, 14.2% ROI

As you can see clearly above, this combined system really comes into its own in terms of increasing the ROI’s achieved on the single systems.  Last season was unreal if I’m honest where the bets that didn’t appear on 7-21 but appeared on 7 or 21 did poorly. Not as obvious a change this season but still, you can see that 7-21 increases the return achieved compared to backing either of the individual systems.

I think it’s quite interesting that system 7-21 has actually had a poorer season than last season even though both individual systems have had a much better season!  Difficult to fathom if I’m honest and totally against what you would expect would happen.  Quite interesting I guess that system 7 and 21 are much better this season and 7-21 appears to be worse.

Even so, a 14.2% ROI is nothing to be ashamed of and I think that’s an important point here. People following 7-21 last season may have been disappointed with only achieving a 14.2% ROI but as I keep saying on the blog, you really need to keep things in perspective with my footie systems. Tipsters would cut their arm off for this level of ROI, so I’m not going to knock the system. Hasn’t lived up to the first season’s performance but over two season’s to date, an ROI of 16.9% across 359 bets is a great platform to build on in future seasons.

The results by league are interesting on this system with Away losses on the Championship, League One and League Two games.  League Two has been losing for three seasons straight and again, it’s a similar theme I’ve covered already this Summer. Draw coverage on that league may be the way to go in future to help minimise the exposure in this league.

Aways in general struggled on this system this season and a lowly ROI of 8% was achieved. This 21% last season although the last backtested season had an ROI of 7.6% on Aways, so this season mirrored the 2009/10 season possibly.

Homes did great this season again on this system with an ROI of 24.8% to follow up the 14.9% last season.

The system started the season very badly with 3 winners in the first 19 bets this season in September and it had another 3 losing months this season. 5 winning months from 9 isn’t great but the low number of bets is solely to blame for this I think.

Overall, since the system went live, it has had 12 winning months from 18.

I think the P&L graphs are interesting and again, you can see that using some form of AH will help smooth the journey on this system.  AH drawdowns are very low and therefore, using some form of AH bet on Aways possibly will reduce the max drawdown and reduce the size of the betting bank needed, thus increasing the ROC achieved.

Last Summer, I suggested a betting bank of 40pts based on the drawdown of 15pts.  The max drawdown is now 19pts after the start this season. Given the low number of bets, I think a bank of 40pts is adequate still and it’s one of the few systems where I got the betting bank right after the first season I think!

So, a profit of 24.3pts this season means a ROC of 60%. A pretty decent return over the season.  I suspect this can easily be improved by playing some form of AH this system although I’d need to look at it in depth to know for sure.

Going forward, I’d say 160 bets is maybe the norm (was slightly more this season), a target ROI of 12% and a profit target of 19.2pts. That would equate to a target ROC of 48%. That’s a decent target and I think it’s conservative considering the ROI has been greater the last two seasons.

System 6-22 Review

System 6-22

Similar to the other combined systems, I think the first thing to check is whether combining system 6 and 22 actually improves the results of each system.

Last Season

System 6 – 573 bets, 4.3% ROI

System 22 – 245 bets, 8.2% ROI

System 6-22 – 185 bets, 13.7% ROI

This Season

System 6 – 712 bets, 5.9% ROI

System 22 – 133 bets, 15.6% ROI

System 6-22 – 127, 12.7% ROI

OK, this is definitely not as clear cut as system 6-21 was.  Last season, it definitely helped to cross refer the systems and it increased the returns a great deal from doing this. Interestingly, it’s not as impressive this season but it is only based on 6 bets! Quite a stunning statistic but last season, 60 bets appeared on 22 that didn’t appear on system 6 and this season, only 6 bets fulfilled this criteria!

This must be linked to the changes last Summer as basically, I spent some time trying to understand why some bets on system 21 & 22 didn’t appear on system 6 and ultimately, I tweaked 6 to bring in more bets from the second algorithm. The second algorithm is a better algorithm (probably since it was built after the first one and I knew what I was doing then!) and therefore, I’m not as surprised as some may be at the changes above.

What is slightly annoying is that the 6 bets that system 6 didn’t like actually contained 3 winners at decent odds, so 6-22 ended up with a lower profit than system 22!

Going forward, I expect this to continue and the vast majority of bets on system 22 are likely to be on system 6, so there should be a very high correlation between system 22 and system 6-22.

It’s hard to compare system 6 to 22 as 6 is a high turnover, lower ROI system whereas 22 is a higher ROI, lower turnover system. It’s easy to see that cross referring 6-22 is better than system 6 but then again, it’s obvious it would be as it has so fewer bets.

League Two aways were the main culprit on this system again and it’s the 3^rd system in a row they have lost on the system. Basically, I could write more about this but it’s the same as I said on system 22!

The system ended the season poorly with two losing months and it had 6 profitable months from 9. Since it went live, it is 12 profitable from 18, so losing months happen fairly regularly due to the low bet number.

Homes finished the season with a below average (for this system!) ROI of 14% and Aways had an ROI of 12.3%.

One thing that does stand out from looking at the graphs of the profit lines is how stable the AH lines are. Using AH0.5 on all Aways over the last two seasons produces a near 12% ROI. When you consider the smooth P&L journey this would bring (you can see the full AH0.5 graph), then I would suspect you’re playing with a very small bank if you did AH0.5 on Aways. The biggest drawdown for using AH0.5 on all bets is only 8pts, so maybe a bank of 20pts would be sufficient for this system and AH0.5. When you consider it has made 30pts profit in two seasons, that’s n ROC of 150%.

I hope people reading these reviews are starting to appreciate that the aim of this game isn’t to achieve a high ROI or a great number of pts profit in a season, it is all about ROC. It may involve a change of mindset and whereas people are maybe winning lots more pts than you, if you are playing 5 times the stake they are due to the lower betting bank needed, you’ll be making more money!

OK, last Summer, I suggested a betting bank of 50pts which was based on the 19pts drawdown. A profit of 16.1pts this season gives an ROC of 32%.  Similar comments to 22 I guess and the ROC looks poor but if you cover the draw in some way, you’ll be able to reduce the betting bank needed dramatically and increase the ROC greatly on this system.

Going forward, the betting bank has to be in line with system 22 given the high correlation between the systems. However, the highest drawdown here is 19 (compared to 25 on system 22), so I think 40pts would be OK here.  Of course, this shows the madness in using past drawdowns for future banks. The historical drawdowns are meaningless in a way as the system isn’t the same system it was in the first season! Hence, system 6-22 and 22 are basically the same system and yet, I suggest a 20% lower bank on 6-22.

Anyway, let’s go with 40pts as a bank. There will be around 125 bets and a target ROI of 10% seems right. That gives a target profit of 12.5pts and a ROC of 31%.

Let’s imagine you played 1pt on AH0.5 for both Home and Away bets even though we know doing this on Homes broke even last season (dutching the draw on home bets means you are laying the Away team at big odds usually!). The highest drawdown has been 8pts to date. Let’s say a bank of 20pts is needed.

125 bets and the ROI should be around 8% although based on the first two seasons, it’s sitting at 11.4% but I know this is because of too many draws in the first season.

So, 8% would generate a profit of 10pts. With a bank of 20pts, that’s an ROC of 50%.  Much better than the 31% from backing outright.  Just a very quick example but it opens your eyes to what is possible with these systems I hope!

If you were to play Homes outright, I’d suggest the drawdown wouldn’t increase by much and you can increase the ROC by further too.

Last chance to join the service at a reduced rate......

Just a quick post to say that there is less than a week left to for any blog readers to join the subscription service at a reduced rate. I’m conscious I’ve had various emails and comments over the past month or two from potential subscribers but so far, the vast majority haven’t taken up the option to join. 

If people are interested in joining the service, now is the time to do it as the price increases in a week’s time. In addition, you will qualify to take part in a Euro 2012 correct score prediction game and you can win back your full subscription fee for the season.

The discount code you need which runs out next Sunday is tfablogdiscount30.  If you enter this code in the discount box, the price should only be £150.  Anyone joining after 3rd June will pay full price.  http://thefootballanalyst.com/subscriptions-page/

Although I’ve not made a big deal about it on the blog, the service was escalated to the Secret Betting Club’s Hall of Fame last week in their end of season magazine. A great achievement for the service given it’s only two years old but well deserved too (if I say so myself!) as the returns so far have been very good.

My proofed results with the SBC over the two seasons are 1,992pts staked, a profit of 305.8pts and an ROI of 15.35%.  Based on the betting bank they suggested of 215pts initially, it’s a ROC of 142.25%. They have reassessed the betting bank though and are happy to suggest a betting bank of 200pts going forward. So the underlying ROC is more like 152.9% to date.

As I know only too well, setting a betting bank for the 6 combined systems isn’t easy but the highest drawdown over the last 6 seasons has been 91pts (which was the second half of the first season and the start of this season), so I would hope 200pts is more than enough to follow these 6 systems.  Last season, the maximum drawdown was 45pts very early on in the season, so it was a great season for these systems after a poor start.

I’m going to take a short break from the system reviews to recharge my batteries for the next set of reviews later this week.  I’ll be back later this week with the next set of reviews.

System 6-21 Review

The next series of reviews are ultimately the most important reviews this Summer. I suspect at least 90% of current TFA followers follow at least one of the combined systems and after the season they’ve had, I can’t imagine people will be deserting these systems any time soon!

System 6-21

OK, the first way to analyse the combined systems has to be to compare the results of each individual system and check that cross referring the systems works and doesn’t actually make the performance of the systems worse.

Last Season

System 6 – 573 bets, 4.3% ROI

System 21 – 489 bets, 4.7% ROI

System 6-21 – 298 bets, 9.1% ROI

This Season

System 6 – 712 bets, 5.9% ROI

System 21 – 562 bets, 10.5% ROI

System 6-21 – 480, 11.1% ROI

Two things to highlight from these results then. Firstly, cross referring the systems works well. You can increase the ROI by reducing the number of bets. It worked much better last season as the single systems struggled a little but by cross referring the systems, you could have nearly doubled the ROI. Less of an impact this season as System 21 had a great season, regardless of what system 6 did but even so, a small increase in ROI on 6-21 this season compared to 6 or 21.

The second thing is the key though. I’ve managed to increase the number of bets on 6-21 this season from a result of all the tweaks last Summer to 6 and 21 but thankfully, it hasn’t resulted in a drop in performance. As discussed before, there is a trade off at this game between the number of bets and ROI and simply, as you increase the number of bets, you expect the ROI to fall. Most of the additional bets that made its way onto system 21 also made its way on system 6-21 this season and it has actually results in a better performance.  

The other way to look at is the performance of the bets on 6 and 21 that didn’t appear on 6-21 this season.  System 6 had 232 bets that didn’t appear on 6-21 and they made a loss of 11.4pts.  System 21 had 82 bets that didn’t appear on 6-21 this season and they made a profit of 5.5pts.

I think the above highlights the power of the combined systems. You can effectively use 6-21 to get rid of the worst bets on system 6 and 21 as when the other system doesn’t like the bet, it tends to let you know it isn’t a good bet.

A loss on League 2 Aways is the only blip this season on this system and again, it’s a 3 year losing streak on this system for these bets. A 37pt loss over the last 3 seasons is reduced to a break-even result is using AH0.5 and I suspect this is the way to play League 2 Aways going forward if you want to try to act on this trend.

Homes and Aways both performed very well with a 10% return on Aways this season (6.7% last season) and a 14.4% return on Homes this season (17% last season).  Homes are slightly stronger than Aways on 6-21 but Aways have 3 times as many bets, so you’d expect Aways to have a slightly lower ROI.

The P&L graphs are brilliant for this system and although there was a spell where a small loss was made over 300 bets (second half of last season), it isn’t far off a perfect 45 degree line since the system went live two seasons ago.

This is also reflected in the drawdown graph where the max drawdown has only been 20pts. I should also point out the AH graphs look equally great on this system which isn’t always the case.

Last Summer, I suggested a bank of 45pts based on the max drawdown of 17pts. Again, this is a very conservative bank! The max drawdown crept up a little to 20pts after the poor start this season.

The profit this season was 53.3pts, so a ROC of 118.4%.

Even though I thought 45pts was very conservative last Summer, I actually think it wouldn’t too conservative to have a bank of 45pts going forward. The average odds are higher now than before and there are more bets than before. Looking at the drawdown graph, there are a number of drawdowns around the 15pt-20pt mark and therefore, I’d be wary of 45pts actually being a safe bank.

I’d maybe say 50pts for next season. There should be around 450 bets and I think an ROI of 8% is probably a good target. This could be conservative given the system has made 9.1% and 11.1% in the first two seasons.  That would give a profit of 36pts and a ROC of 72%.  A season similar to the first two would see this ROC increase I suspect.  

72% as a conservative view of target ROC next season….Doesn’t sound too bad does it?